Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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The equity skew finally caught up
Last week I was banging the drum about equity skew being way too cheap.
70x on a 3-month option I didn't buy
The semis ETF rallied about 80% off the lows over a few months. Most people remember that move.
The hedging trap that catches you in month four
Hedging a long-only book sounds simple until you've been doing it for three months and the market has only gone up.
One of these three skews is wrong
Three asset classes, three different reads on the same macro picture. One of them is probably mispriced.
How I pick a short-theta structure by regime
How I think about picking a short-theta structure depending on the regime.
The invisible gamma driving these parabolic moves
A market-structure read on why these parabolic moves are getting more violent.
A diagnostic for spotting bad IV on your platform
A quick diagnostic anyone can run on an options chain to spot when the model is lying to you.
The cleanest way to think about implied vol
The cleanest way I've found to explain why higher implied vol means more time value.
The mindset shift that makes options click
A mindset shift that changes how you think about trading options.
Two under-the-hood metrics I track on single stocks
What these give you that a price chart doesn't is the footprint of the flow. Options flow is exploding right now...
Why I'm not buying VIX here yet
When VIX beta collapses, that usually suggests VIX is a buy. But there is something else...
Why I keep a 20-30% hedge ratio...
Before the end of the decade, the market is likely to have a problem. The problem is that these things take a ridiculously long time to actually materialise though
Lesson from NVDA earnings
A lesson worth holding onto from NVDA earnings.
How I restructured a losing trade
Let me show you what I did with a trade that was going against me.
A chart setup is only half a signal
The vol surface is the bit that turns a chart setup into an actual trade.
Roll your hedges up, or pay for it later
One thing I've been thinking about given where the market is...
This sounds wrong but it's a reality check
If a big call purchase is a stock-replacement trade, is it bullish or bearish? Bearish. The buyer is reducing his net delta, not adding to it.
How to tell if smart money just hit the tape
Most retail watches the flow. They look at the print, see the size, and try to guess what someone knew.
The VIX regime framework
After two and a half decades trading these markets, my core conclusion on volatility is simple. You have to treat it as a series of regimes, not absolute levels.
Cheap vol that still bleeds you
Natural gas vol is at the lows. But it's not carrying. Cheap on the screen, expensive in the seat.