Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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The earnings calendar trap on retail platforms
The single biggest mistake I see on earnings calendar spreads makes a good trade look twice as good as it actually is.
Positioning size without liquidity context is noise
A flow is only as powerful as the liquidity that has to absorb it. People forget that when they read positioning data.
The best portfolio construction idea I ever borrowed
The best idea I ever borrowed on portfolio construction: you don't have to choose between being fully invested and being protected.
How I teach options
Quick note on how I teach options.
Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7
The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.
One dealer position explains both VIX mechanics
The VIX usually bleeds into its expiry. When it does go, it goes violently. The same dealer positioning explains both.
The vol supply that never went away
A story from my market-making days that shapes how I still read index vol today.
The VIX is a one-way street
The VIX is the most one-sided book in the entire market. Once you see it, a lot of the VIX's odd behaviour starts to make sense.
Bitcoin's options are getting bullish ahead of the price
Bitcoin's options are quietly getting bullish before the price is. The signal sits in the skew.
Why Friday-Monday calendars are a trap
Something I've stopped doing recently: Friday-Monday calendar spreads.
The skew is one of the best early-warning systems
The volatility skew is one of the best early-warning systems in markets.
Why pros buy options that expire worthless
Crash protection puts lose 99% of the time. Pros still buy them.
Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell
Vol is catching a bid on the way up.
Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell
Vol is catching a bid on the way up.
AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped
AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.
Why tech vol isn't going back to old baselines
Every day into the close, there's a mechanical flow running through the tape.
Your total Vega number is probably lying to you
If you run a multi-expiry options book and you're looking at one total Vega number, that number is probably lying to you.
The vol surface isn't buying the rally
Something worth sitting with.
Trading options for a living looks different from what people picture
My actual day is much closer to a series of check-ins spaced an hour or two apart.
Alpha book up 5.22% on a strong theta week
Weekly update on the Alpha Gen book. Strong week. Alpha Gen up 5.22%, driven almost entirely by the Theta sleeve.