Vol doubled. I traded half as much
When vol doubles, I trade half as much.
Volatile markets feel like opportunity everywhere. 2% daily ranges. Headlines every hour. Setups on every chart.
Your instinct says more trades, more chances to profit.
Well, I do the opposite.
When vol doubles, I need twice as many confirming signals before I'll enter anything.
A setup that would've been an instant entry in a calm market? I need skew to confirm.
I need term structure to align. I need dealer positioning to not be working against me.
Because in high vol, the cost of being wrong scales up just as fast as the reward of being right.
Your stop is wider. Your premium is more expensive. And the overnight gap risk that didn't exist at 15 vol can now blow through your levels while you sleep.
Sitting still when everything is screaming "do something" is a skill that takes years to build. And it usually gets built after a few painful lessons.
No-trade is a decision too. Sometimes it's the best one you'll make all week.
Imran
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