Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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The VIX is a one-way street
The VIX is the most one-sided book in the entire market. Once you see it, a lot of the VIX's odd behaviour starts to make sense.
Bitcoin's options are getting bullish ahead of the price
Bitcoin's options are quietly getting bullish before the price is. The signal sits in the skew.
Why Friday-Monday calendars are a trap
Something I've stopped doing recently: Friday-Monday calendar spreads.
The skew is one of the best early-warning systems
The volatility skew is one of the best early-warning systems in markets.
Why pros buy options that expire worthless
Crash protection puts lose 99% of the time. Pros still buy them.
Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell
Vol is catching a bid on the way up.
Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell
Vol is catching a bid on the way up.
AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped
AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.
Why tech vol isn't going back to old baselines
Every day into the close, there's a mechanical flow running through the tape.
Your total Vega number is probably lying to you
If you run a multi-expiry options book and you're looking at one total Vega number, that number is probably lying to you.
The vol surface isn't buying the rally
Something worth sitting with.
Trading options for a living looks different from what people picture
My actual day is much closer to a series of check-ins spaced an hour or two apart.
Alpha book up 5.22% on a strong theta week
Weekly update on the Alpha Gen book. Strong week. Alpha Gen up 5.22%, driven almost entirely by the Theta sleeve.
How MMs killed the meme squeeze
Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
Why steep put skew is a gift to gold buyers right now
Quick observation for anyone wanting to add to their gold exposure at lower levels.
A 99th percentile NASDAQ vol spike is the fade
Vol spikes on down days usually become the setup for a crush. Read the mechanics before you chase the move higher.
The cheap asymmetric vol is sitting in bonds
VIX is back around 20. That's where the crowd is putting its vol bets.
The asymmetry in spot-vol that catches people out
Vol often collapses faster on the bounce than it rose on the sell-off.
The risks that actually end careers
The first-order Greeks are the easy part. The small stuff is what ends careers.