Single Stocks
Posts where the underlying is a specific equity name (NVDA, GOOG, IBM, etc.).
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What was priced in for Amazon?
Before an earnings trade, the first thing I look at is how much the market thinks the stock will move. Then I look at how much it’s actually moved before.
Does the skew agree with the move?
After a big move, I want to know whether skew agrees with it.
A gamma wall means nothing on its own
I don’t think a gamma wall means much unless you compare it to how much the stock actually trades.
No buy signal on NVDA yet
Last week I flagged a skew divergence on NVDA to members, right as the stock hit new highs above 240.
MSFT keeps bumping into 550 call wall
MSFT rallied back to the highs at 550 and got rejected again.
Same rally, two different stories
Both big retailers, COST and WMT, have had 10% rallies into overbought territory. They’ve both run into their call wall zones.
Rolling a winner when vol's caught a bid
When a single stock rips, the vol catches a bid alongside it. That's what makes rolling a winner awkward.
Follow-up on Saturday's SMH note
SMH broke out on Monday
Grinding into new highs on falling vol (AAPL case study)
I would rather not just buy the calls and hope
Say you spot one. Heavy call activity, stock starting to move, vol has popped a bit but hasn't gone insane yet.
The gamma squeeze signature
If you want one signal that tells you a squeeze could be building, this is the one I'd use.
The one option flow I would actually pay attention to
Yesterday I sent the Jason Ruschel interview. This is a specific piece of it worth pulling out on its own.
The trader who learned VIX from GFC floor blogs
Sat down this week with Jason Ruschel from Three Peaks Trading.
Why single-stock names dump even on a beat
A lot of options traders learn how dealer positioning works on the index and carry the same logic into single stocks.
Single stock upside is priced too cheaply this season
Single stock upside is being priced too cheaply into these prints.
Match the expiry to your thesis
The most expensive mistake I see people make on options is picking the wrong expiry.
Every market maker's recurring fear
Every market maker I know has the same recurring fear
This earnings season was different
What the AAPL surface was telling me into earnings
AAPL has been on fire. The call wall has shifted up to 350, which tells you positioning has moved with the rally.
The earnings calendar trap on retail platforms
The single biggest mistake I see on earnings calendar spreads makes a good trade look twice as good as it actually is.