Single Stocks

Every market maker's recurring fear

Every market maker I know has the same recurring fear

This earnings season was different

What the AAPL surface was telling me into earnings

AAPL has been on fire. The call wall has shifted up to 350, which tells you positioning has moved with the rally.

The earnings calendar trap on retail platforms

The single biggest mistake I see on earnings calendar spreads makes a good trade look twice as good as it actually is.

Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7

The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.

Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell

Vol is catching a bid on the way up.

AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped

AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.

Why tech vol isn't going back to old baselines

Every day into the close, there's a mechanical flow running through the tape.

How MMs killed the meme squeeze

Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.

Why I'm playing NVDA back up here

NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.

The SPCX vol crush is underway

Following up on the SPCX vol crush thesis.

What 100% IV on launch day actually means

A market maker pricing the opening chain on a brand-new, retail-loved name has no realised vol history to lean on. He's looking at a flood of one-way call demand coming at him.

SpaceX options launch Tuesday. Here's the mechanic.

SpaceX options launch on Tuesday. The setup is worth understanding before the chains open.

When the surface goes parabolic with the spot

A stock rallies 20% in two weeks. Call skew runs from neutral to 7-8 vols into calls. Fixed-strike vol is bid only across the surface.

The invisible gamma driving these parabolic moves

A market-structure read on why these parabolic moves are getting more violent.

Lesson from NVDA earnings

A lesson worth holding onto from NVDA earnings.

How I restructured a losing trade

Let me show you what I did with a trade that was going against me.

Why I'm short SMH despite NVDA ripping

NVDA ripped 4% yesterday. SMH didn't move. When the leader carries the tape and the breadth doesn't follow, you pay attention.

The collar game: how I ran this stock without chickening out

Every time a winner rips, you feel the itch to sell. You fight it because "run your winners." It keeps ripping. Then eventually it pulls back 15% and you watch half your gains evaporate, selling in a panic right at the low.

The rally no one trusts

NVDA is rallying. The options market disagrees. Skew is telling you something...