Vol Surface
Posts about implied volatility levels, fixed strike vol, term structure, IV vs realized vol, and implied correlation.
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The setup I'm watching for a VIX play
Most traders watch VIX rip on a selloff and assume single-stock vols are doing the same thing. They're not. And the gap is one of the most exploitable patterns in index options.
The hidden reason NASDAQ upside keeps getting supported
There's a dynamic impacting vol markets this month and it doesn't get much airtime outside hedge fund desks.
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed. Take the fly-agonal. It's one of the more complex structures out there, and most people learn HOW to put it on without ever learning WHY it exists.
The spike in implied correlation and what it means
SPX 3-month implied correlation just spiked to 0.40. Realized correlation? Sitting at 0.15.
The vol relationship few chart
The majority of traders look at vol levels. Some look at term structure. Almost nobody maps the two together. They should.
The weekend gap the market forgot
Everyone's arguing about where the SPX goes next. I'm looking at something else entirely.
VIX is lying to you
SPX makes a new local low. VIX ticks higher. Looks bearish, right? Not so fast.
The signal hiding inside implied vol
Stock hits a new high. You think it's bullish. But what's implied vol doing?
One bad day is wrecking your vol reads
One spike to 120% a year ago is still messing with your reads today.
Right view. Wrong structure.
"I had the right view... but still lost money." Does this resonate with you?
The view wasn't the trade
"I had the right view but still lost money." I hear this time and time again. And the answer is always the same. The view wasn't the trade.
SPX fixed strike vol: are you noticing?
When price whips around and fixed-strike skew stays bid, the market isn’t debating direction. It’s repricing downside distribution...
When the market pays for insurance into strength
Yesterday morning looked clean on the surface. SPX pushed higher, flirting with 7000.Tech earnings were out of the way.