Vol Surface
Posts about implied volatility levels, fixed strike vol, term structure, IV vs realized vol, and implied correlation.
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Four things I need to see before buying a correction
There are four things I want to see before I'll put money to work into a correction.
The trader who learned VIX from GFC floor blogs
Sat down this week with Jason Ruschel from Three Peaks Trading.
Single stock upside is priced too cheaply this season
Single stock upside is being priced too cheaply into these prints.
What options data can and can't tell you
People expect too much from options data in the wrong moments.
The VIX contract that misses your event
Here's a technical point on VIX futures that costs people money every election cycle. It's completely non-intuitive.
Before you buy the call, look at the term structure
Before you buy that call, spend thirty seconds on the term structure
Every market maker's recurring fear
Every market maker I know has the same recurring fear
The volatility skew as a conditional statement
The volatility skew is a conditional statement. Every point on it is the market's expected vol if the underlying actually gets to that strike.
What the AAPL surface was telling me into earnings
AAPL has been on fire. The call wall has shifted up to 350, which tells you positioning has moved with the rally.
On the shopping list: October vol
My base case for the next few weeks is boring. Markets drift up into mid-August. The low-vol regime just carries on.
The earnings calendar trap on retail platforms
The single biggest mistake I see on earnings calendar spreads makes a good trade look twice as good as it actually is.
How I teach options
Quick note on how I teach options.
Bitcoin's options are getting bullish ahead of the price
Bitcoin's options are quietly getting bullish before the price is. The signal sits in the skew.
Why Friday-Monday calendars are a trap
Something I've stopped doing recently: Friday-Monday calendar spreads.
The skew is one of the best early-warning systems
The volatility skew is one of the best early-warning systems in markets.
Vol catching a bid on META's rally is the tell
Vol is catching a bid on the way up.
AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped
AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.
Your total Vega number is probably lying to you
If you run a multi-expiry options book and you're looking at one total Vega number, that number is probably lying to you.
The vol surface isn't buying the rally
Something worth sitting with.
How MMs killed the meme squeeze
Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.