Trade Structures
Posts about choosing between flies, risk reversals, condors, calendars, and other multi-leg structures.
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Why I'm short SMH despite NVDA ripping
NVDA ripped 4% yesterday. SMH didn't move. When the leader carries the tape and the breadth doesn't follow, you pay attention.
How to defend a long without selling it
For long-term holders sitting on real gains, this is one of the cleanest ways to ride out an event without giving up your seat.
Blowout earnings are getting sold. That's a tell.
The NASDAQ rally has at least four tailwinds behind it. Most commentary only names one. Yes, the AI story is real. But look at what else is driving the flow.
The collar game: how I ran this stock without chickening out
Every time a winner rips, you feel the itch to sell. You fight it because "run your winners." It keeps ripping. Then eventually it pulls back 15% and you watch half your gains evaporate, selling in a panic right at the low.
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed. Take the fly-agonal. It's one of the more complex structures out there, and most people learn HOW to put it on without ever learning WHY it exists.
The trade most miss when vol explodes
When implied vol hits 60%, most retail traders freeze. "Too expensive," they say. They shut down. They watch from the sidelines while the premium gets richer by the day.
Asymmetric bets: the idea behind every good options trade
Every options strategy I've run for twenty years has one thing in common — I'm looking for bets where the downside is capped and the upside is a multiple of it. Here's how to find them and how to structure them.
The fly trap
Call butterflies look incredible on paper. Spend $300, make $1,200. That's 4 to 1. Here's what the payoff diagram doesn't show you.
Two time horizons, one portfolio
Your swing trade thesis has a shelf life of about 10 minutes right now.
Why I rolled into a put fly
SPX at 6,380 and I just banked profits on my put spreads. A sharp squeeze higher is building...
The weekend gap the market forgot
Everyone's arguing about where the SPX goes next. I'm looking at something else entirely.
The fly held you hostage
Butterfly spreads look incredible on paper. 10-to-1 payoff. Defined risk. Tight structure. Here's the part that stings.
The better-looking trade is sometimes the worse trade
Remember this... the payoff diagram is a photograph of the last day. It shows you what happens if you hold to expiry, if price lands in the right spot, if everything plays out along one specific path.
Your hedge is bleeding you dry
Buying puts every month to hedge your portfolio is a guaranteed way to bleed money. Most puts expire worthless
Stop buying calls on the bounce
You see a selloff. You think it's overdone. So you buy calls. Then theta eats you alive because vol is through the roof.
Stop overpaying for protection
Your hedge is expiring. Vol just spiked. The obvious move is to roll into another put. Don't.
Why I'm using flies instead of calls right now
Most traders see SPX stretched 1-2% below VWAP and reach for calls. In 30-vol, that's a terrible trade
Right view. Wrong structure.
"I had the right view... but still lost money." Does this resonate with you?
Skew is storing energy
Everyone wants to sell premium right now. I get it — vol is elevated, theta looks fat.
The view wasn't the trade
"I had the right view but still lost money." I hear this time and time again. And the answer is always the same. The view wasn't the trade.