Skew
Posts about implied volatility skew, the vol smile, normalizing skew data, and what skew shape signals about positioning.
Get these in your inbox every market day.
Does the skew agree with the move?
After a big move, I want to know whether skew agrees with it.
What pumped skew is telling you about dealers
When skew gets really pumped, it’s telling you something about what end users have already done.
The hidden cost in a risk reversal
A risk reversal hedge can be flat vega, small short gamma, and still cost you decay every day.
No buy signal on NVDA yet
Last week I flagged a skew divergence on NVDA to members, right as the stock hit new highs above 240.
Same rally, two different stories
Both big retailers, COST and WMT, have had 10% rallies into overbought territory. They’ve both run into their call wall zones.
Grinding into new highs on falling vol (AAPL case study)
I would rather not just buy the calls and hope
Say you spot one. Heavy call activity, stock starting to move, vol has popped a bit but hasn't gone insane yet.
The gamma squeeze signature
If you want one signal that tells you a squeeze could be building, this is the one I'd use.
One of my Delta framework setups
Live example from this week. XLI has pulled back, and the question is whether to lean bullish into the pullback or stay out.
Four things I need to see before buying a correction
There are four things I want to see before I'll put money to work into a correction.
The current calm is a positioning artefact
The calm we've had for the last few weeks is a positioning artefact.
The S&P dealer position has flipped into OPEX
The S&P dealer position has inverted, and that changes what the drift into OPEX usually looks like.
The collar that pays you instead of charging you
The collar trade behaves differently in different asset classes. Find out why...
The volatility skew as a conditional statement
The volatility skew is a conditional statement. Every point on it is the market's expected vol if the underlying actually gets to that strike.
What the AAPL surface was telling me into earnings
AAPL has been on fire. The call wall has shifted up to 350, which tells you positioning has moved with the rally.
Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7
The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.
Bitcoin's options are getting bullish ahead of the price
Bitcoin's options are quietly getting bullish before the price is. The signal sits in the skew.
The skew is one of the best early-warning systems
The volatility skew is one of the best early-warning systems in markets.
Why pros buy options that expire worthless
Crash protection puts lose 99% of the time. Pros still buy them.
How MMs killed the meme squeeze
Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.