Skew
Posts about implied volatility skew, the vol smile, normalizing skew data, and what skew shape signals about positioning.
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The S&P dealer position has flipped into OPEX
The S&P dealer position has inverted, and that changes what the drift into OPEX usually looks like.
The collar that pays you instead of charging you
The collar trade behaves differently in different asset classes. Find out why...
The volatility skew as a conditional statement
The volatility skew is a conditional statement. Every point on it is the market's expected vol if the underlying actually gets to that strike.
What the AAPL surface was telling me into earnings
AAPL has been on fire. The call wall has shifted up to 350, which tells you positioning has moved with the rally.
Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7
The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.
Bitcoin's options are getting bullish ahead of the price
Bitcoin's options are quietly getting bullish before the price is. The signal sits in the skew.
The skew is one of the best early-warning systems
The volatility skew is one of the best early-warning systems in markets.
Why pros buy options that expire worthless
Crash protection puts lose 99% of the time. Pros still buy them.
How MMs killed the meme squeeze
Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
Why steep put skew is a gift to gold buyers right now
Quick observation for anyone wanting to add to their gold exposure at lower levels.
A 99th percentile NASDAQ vol spike is the fade
Vol spikes on down days usually become the setup for a crush. Read the mechanics before you chase the move higher.
The asymmetry in spot-vol that catches people out
Vol often collapses faster on the bounce than it rose on the sell-off.
The SPCX vol crush is underway
Following up on the SPCX vol crush thesis.
SpaceX options launch Tuesday. Here's the mechanic.
SpaceX options launch on Tuesday. The setup is worth understanding before the chains open.
The equity skew finally caught up
Last week I was banging the drum about equity skew being way too cheap.
When the surface goes parabolic with the spot
A stock rallies 20% in two weeks. Call skew runs from neutral to 7-8 vols into calls. Fixed-strike vol is bid only across the surface.
One of these three skews is wrong
Three asset classes, three different reads on the same macro picture. One of them is probably mispriced.
Two under-the-hood metrics I track on single stocks
What these give you that a price chart doesn't is the footprint of the flow. Options flow is exploding right now...
Lesson from NVDA earnings
A lesson worth holding onto from NVDA earnings.