Skew
Posts about implied volatility skew, the vol smile, normalizing skew data, and what skew shape signals about positioning.
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How MMs killed the meme squeeze
Two mechanics are doing most of the work. Both live on the vol surface.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
Why steep put skew is a gift to gold buyers right now
Quick observation for anyone wanting to add to their gold exposure at lower levels.
A 99th percentile NASDAQ vol spike is the fade
Vol spikes on down days usually become the setup for a crush. Read the mechanics before you chase the move higher.
The asymmetry in spot-vol that catches people out
Vol often collapses faster on the bounce than it rose on the sell-off.
The SPCX vol crush is underway
Following up on the SPCX vol crush thesis.
SpaceX options launch Tuesday. Here's the mechanic.
SpaceX options launch on Tuesday. The setup is worth understanding before the chains open.
The equity skew finally caught up
Last week I was banging the drum about equity skew being way too cheap.
When the surface goes parabolic with the spot
A stock rallies 20% in two weeks. Call skew runs from neutral to 7-8 vols into calls. Fixed-strike vol is bid only across the surface.
One of these three skews is wrong
Three asset classes, three different reads on the same macro picture. One of them is probably mispriced.
Two under-the-hood metrics I track on single stocks
What these give you that a price chart doesn't is the footprint of the flow. Options flow is exploding right now...
Lesson from NVDA earnings
A lesson worth holding onto from NVDA earnings.
A chart setup is only half a signal
The vol surface is the bit that turns a chart setup into an actual trade.
How to tell if smart money just hit the tape
Most retail watches the flow. They look at the print, see the size, and try to guess what someone knew.
Why "good earnings" stocks often dump the next day
VANNA works in opposite directions for the index versus single stocks. Same mechanic. Mirrored positioning. Opposite outcomes.
One of the most reliable post-earnings setups
Setup: a stock is rallying into earnings. Skew shifts hard toward calls. Implied vol on upside strikes is bid. Retail and momentum funds are piling into upside calls.
The "right" way to read skew
Someone in the community asked me if there's a rule of thumb for normalizing skew data.
The "fear gauge" is wrong
CNBC has called VIX the "fear gauge" for 30 years. That's just wrong.
Crashes don't start from the top
"Buy protection when markets are euphoric and everyone's greedy." Every beginner trading book says that.
Not all put buying means the same thing
"Record put demand, must be close to a bottom." I keep seeing this take. And historically, heavy put buying does line up with bottoms.