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Debt ceiling deal goes to Senate today!
The US Treasury is on track to start issuing T-bills or treasury bonds.
That’s what liquidity trackers have been worried about.
Take a glance at some of the research in today’s Macro Options Daily below ☟
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Market Predictions by TS Lombard
TS Lombard projects SPX likely lower alongside liquidity as Treasury refills TGA and QT maintains pace.
They argue TGA drawdown has neutralized QT so far in 2023, but that might end.
The prediction is a potential 10% nominal GDP drawdown in the next 3 months due to the TGA flip.
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June Seasonality & Market Resistance
Add to this, June’s seasonality is typically not favorable.
While markets once again face formidable resistance at 4200.
As such, we wouldn’t fault you at all for considering a defensive position.
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US Vols Remain Unaffected
Yet another factor to consider…
So far, the US vols have been unaffected by price reversal as Europe & China struggle.
It’s doubtful the US can ignore a downturn in Chinese growth for too long.
Especially if everyone is already full up on US tech names…
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In the meantime, get more color on the incoming liquidity drain in this clip from today’s Macro Options Spotlight:
Then watch today’s full Spotlight video from the Options Insight YouTube Channel:
Navigating Market Volatility: Liquidity Drain, Debt Ceiling, and OPEC+ Decisions | Macro Options Spotlight | June 1, 2023
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Thank you for making it this far.
Please share this with anyone trying navigate these tricky markets.
Cheers!
Imran Lakha
Options Insight
