Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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Why I'm not buying VIX here yet
When VIX beta collapses, that usually suggests VIX is a buy. But there is something else...
Why I keep a 20-30% hedge ratio...
Before the end of the decade, the market is likely to have a problem. The problem is that these things take a ridiculously long time to actually materialise though
Lesson from NVDA earnings
A lesson worth holding onto from NVDA earnings.
How I restructured a losing trade
Let me show you what I did with a trade that was going against me.
A chart setup is only half a signal
The vol surface is the bit that turns a chart setup into an actual trade.
Roll your hedges up, or pay for it later
One thing I've been thinking about given where the market is...
This sounds wrong but it's a reality check
If a big call purchase is a stock-replacement trade, is it bullish or bearish? Bearish. The buyer is reducing his net delta, not adding to it.
How to tell if smart money just hit the tape
Most retail watches the flow. They look at the print, see the size, and try to guess what someone knew.
The VIX regime framework
After two and a half decades trading these markets, my core conclusion on volatility is simple. You have to treat it as a series of regimes, not absolute levels.
Cheap vol that still bleeds you
Natural gas vol is at the lows. But it's not carrying. Cheap on the screen, expensive in the seat.
How I think about a multi-position book
Running an options book with lots of positions gets messy fast. The way pros stay sane is by aggregating the Greeks.
Why "good earnings" stocks often dump the next day
VANNA works in opposite directions for the index versus single stocks. Same mechanic. Mirrored positioning. Opposite outcomes.
You don't need to nail the top to win the trade
You think the move is overcooked. You want short exposure. You're tempted to buy a put or short the underlying.
One of the most reliable post-earnings setups
Setup: a stock is rallying into earnings. Skew shifts hard toward calls. Implied vol on upside strikes is bid. Retail and momentum funds are piling into upside calls.
Stop cheering for your hedges to work
Your hedge has one job. Take enough sting off the move that you don't capitulate on the core position.
Why I'm short SMH despite NVDA ripping
NVDA ripped 4% yesterday. SMH didn't move. When the leader carries the tape and the breadth doesn't follow, you pay attention.
How to defend a long without selling it
For long-term holders sitting on real gains, this is one of the cleanest ways to ride out an event without giving up your seat.
The setup I'm watching for a VIX play
Most traders watch VIX rip on a selloff and assume single-stock vols are doing the same thing. They're not. And the gap is one of the most exploitable patterns in index options.
Blowout earnings are getting sold. That's a tell.
The NASDAQ rally has at least four tailwinds behind it. Most commentary only names one. Yes, the AI story is real. But look at what else is driving the flow.
The collar game: how I ran this stock without chickening out
Every time a winner rips, you feel the itch to sell. You fight it because "run your winners." It keeps ripping. Then eventually it pulls back 15% and you watch half your gains evaporate, selling in a panic right at the low.