Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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Asymmetric bets: the idea behind every good options trade
Every options strategy I've run for twenty years has one thing in common — I'm looking for bets where the downside is capped and the upside is a multiple of it. Here's how to find them and how to structure them.
Portfolio Highlights: I made 100% on oil overnight. Then I did something most traders won't
Last week I put on an oil put ratio right before Trump's Iran deadline. Short delta, short vol. 2-by-3 ratio.
Hedges should lose money
Your hedges should lose money. That's the whole point. If your put spreads bleed in a rally, good.
The fly trap
Call butterflies look incredible on paper. Spend $300, make $1,200. That's 4 to 1. Here's what the payoff diagram doesn't show you.
The "right" way to read skew
Someone in the community asked me if there's a rule of thumb for normalizing skew data.
VIX beta is telling you something
By looking at VIX beta, this playbook is broken right now, and here is why...
Two time horizons, one portfolio
Your swing trade thesis has a shelf life of about 10 minutes right now.
The "fear gauge" is wrong
CNBC has called VIX the "fear gauge" for 30 years. That's just wrong.
Three conditions before I sell premium
Implied vol sitting above realized vol. Variance premium right there for the taking. Simple, right?
Two books or one?
Do you run two mental accounts? "My portfolio" over here. "My options trades" over there. Completely separate books.
The spike in implied correlation and what it means
SPX 3-month implied correlation just spiked to 0.40. Realized correlation? Sitting at 0.15.
Why I rolled into a put fly
SPX at 6,380 and I just banked profits on my put spreads. A sharp squeeze higher is building...
The vol relationship few chart
The majority of traders look at vol levels. Some look at term structure. Almost nobody maps the two together. They should.
The weekend gap the market forgot
Everyone's arguing about where the SPX goes next. I'm looking at something else entirely.
The fly held you hostage
Butterfly spreads look incredible on paper. 10-to-1 payoff. Defined risk. Tight structure. Here's the part that stings.
The better-looking trade is sometimes the worse trade
Remember this... the payoff diagram is a photograph of the last day. It shows you what happens if you hold to expiry, if price lands in the right spot, if everything plays out along one specific path.
Vol doubled. I traded half as much
When vol doubles, I trade half as much. Volatile markets feel like opportunity everywhere. 2% daily ranges. Headlines every hour. Setups on every chart.
VIX is lying to you
SPX makes a new local low. VIX ticks higher. Looks bearish, right? Not so fast.
Three buckets, one question
Every options trade I take falls into one of three buckets. Delta. Theta. Vega.
Your hedge is bleeding you dry
Buying puts every month to hedge your portfolio is a guaranteed way to bleed money. Most puts expire worthless