Trading Process
Posts about decision frameworks, mindset, education, and what makes a good trader vs a good trade.
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The gamma number at the open isn’t the one that counts
You look at S&P gamma in the morning and there’s a billion or two. Then by noon or 1 o’clock there’s like $10 billion.
Last week, one put fly did most of the work
Here’s how the Alpha Generation Portfolio finished last week: up 3.04%, thanks mostly to one well-timed SPX put fly.
What was priced in for Amazon?
Before an earnings trade, the first thing I look at is how much the market thinks the stock will move. Then I look at how much it’s actually moved before.
How much did your hedges give back?
On a big rally week, the question I ask is how much my hedges gave back, and whether that’s about right.
What I watch before I take hedges off
After a big drop, the thing I watch before I unwind hedges is how vol behaves on the next leg down.
I hate the term guru.
I’ve got no interest in predicting the future and getting everyone to copy my trades.
Gamma and vega age differently
Gamma and vega age differently.
The hidden cost in a risk reversal
A risk reversal hedge can be flat vega, small short gamma, and still cost you decay every day.
No buy signal on NVDA yet
Last week I flagged a skew divergence on NVDA to members, right as the stock hit new highs above 240.
Sell vol in bonds, buy it in gold
A lot of names look oversold on my compass right now.
The 0DTE broken wing fly
When I want to trade an intraday directional view, I tend to reach for a 0DTE broken wing fly.
Hedge it so you don't have to sell it
The reason to hedge something you love is so you don't have to sell it.
Rolling a winner when vol's caught a bid
When a single stock rips, the vol catches a bid alongside it. That's what makes rolling a winner awkward.
Monetising a put hedge in a vol spike
A specific play from the hedge-management drawer.
The premium is the stop
I generally don't use stop losses on long option positions.
Why 0DTE volumes went through the roof
I think a lot of people arrived at 0DTE from the same doorway I did.
Follow-up on Saturday's SMH note
SMH broke out on Monday
The vol level picks the shape
Quick one on structure selection.
If you've got a small account, don't hedge it
Something I'd say more often if I got asked more often.