Trading Process
Posts about decision frameworks, mindset, education, and what makes a good trader vs a good trade.
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Trading options for a living looks different from what people picture
My actual day is much closer to a series of check-ins spaced an hour or two apart.
Alpha book up 5.22% on a strong theta week
Weekly update on the Alpha Gen book. Strong week. Alpha Gen up 5.22%, driven almost entirely by the Theta sleeve.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
The cheap asymmetric vol is sitting in bonds
VIX is back around 20. That's where the crowd is putting its vol bets.
Alpha book up 3.71%: Delta did the work
Decent week. Alpha Gen book up 3.71%, almost all of it from the Delta sleeve. Long-only also recovered nicely.
The 1-2 week window in VIX worth knowing about
There's a clock in the VIX cycle worth knowing about.
70x on a 3-month option I didn't buy
The semis ETF rallied about 80% off the lows over a few months. Most people remember that move.
The hedging trap that catches you in month four
Hedging a long-only book sounds simple until you've been doing it for three months and the market has only gone up.
A diagnostic for spotting bad IV on your platform
A quick diagnostic anyone can run on an options chain to spot when the model is lying to you.
The mindset shift that makes options click
A mindset shift that changes how you think about trading options.
The VIX regime framework
After two and a half decades trading these markets, my core conclusion on volatility is simple. You have to treat it as a series of regimes, not absolute levels.
Stop cheering for your hedges to work
Your hedge has one job. Take enough sting off the move that you don't capitulate on the core position.
My portfolio: another week where the process paid
Good week in the book. Alpha Generation up around 6% on the week. Long-only made back close to 3% on a broad recovery. YTD now sitting at +6.4% including hedges.
Asymmetric bets: the idea behind every good options trade
Every options strategy I've run for twenty years has one thing in common — I'm looking for bets where the downside is capped and the upside is a multiple of it. Here's how to find them and how to structure them.
Portfolio Highlights: I made 100% on oil overnight. Then I did something most traders won't
Last week I put on an oil put ratio right before Trump's Iran deadline. Short delta, short vol. 2-by-3 ratio.
The "right" way to read skew
Someone in the community asked me if there's a rule of thumb for normalizing skew data.
Vol doubled. I traded half as much
When vol doubles, I trade half as much. Volatile markets feel like opportunity everywhere. 2% daily ranges. Headlines every hour. Setups on every chart.
Three buckets, one question
Every options trade I take falls into one of three buckets. Delta. Theta. Vega.
Your model doesn't watch the news
I spent 20 years on institutional desks. The most sophisticated risk decision I ever witnessed was a senior trader hitting pause.
15% in a month. That's not a win.
Made 15% in a month on a position I expected to take six months. Most people would celebrate. I started recalibrating.