Trading Process
Posts about decision frameworks, mindset, education, and what makes a good trader vs a good trade.
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The multidimensional trap in options
Options are multidimensional. That's the part that trips most people up.
On the shopping list: October vol
My base case for the next few weeks is boring. Markets drift up into mid-August. The low-vol regime just carries on.
Why I ignore GEX-by-strike numbers
The metric I actually use for reading dealer gamma at each strike is net position size in contracts
Positioning size without liquidity context is noise
A flow is only as powerful as the liquidity that has to absorb it. People forget that when they read positioning data.
The best portfolio construction idea I ever borrowed
The best idea I ever borrowed on portfolio construction: you don't have to choose between being fully invested and being protected.
How I teach options
Quick note on how I teach options.
Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7
The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.
The vol supply that never went away
A story from my market-making days that shapes how I still read index vol today.
Why Friday-Monday calendars are a trap
Something I've stopped doing recently: Friday-Monday calendar spreads.
AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped
AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.
Your total Vega number is probably lying to you
If you run a multi-expiry options book and you're looking at one total Vega number, that number is probably lying to you.
Trading options for a living looks different from what people picture
My actual day is much closer to a series of check-ins spaced an hour or two apart.
Alpha book up 5.22% on a strong theta week
Weekly update on the Alpha Gen book. Strong week. Alpha Gen up 5.22%, driven almost entirely by the Theta sleeve.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
The cheap asymmetric vol is sitting in bonds
VIX is back around 20. That's where the crowd is putting its vol bets.
Alpha book up 3.71%: Delta did the work
Decent week. Alpha Gen book up 3.71%, almost all of it from the Delta sleeve. Long-only also recovered nicely.
The 1-2 week window in VIX worth knowing about
There's a clock in the VIX cycle worth knowing about.
70x on a 3-month option I didn't buy
The semis ETF rallied about 80% off the lows over a few months. Most people remember that move.
The hedging trap that catches you in month four
Hedging a long-only book sounds simple until you've been doing it for three months and the market has only gone up.
A diagnostic for spotting bad IV on your platform
A quick diagnostic anyone can run on an options chain to spot when the model is lying to you.