Trading Process
Posts about decision frameworks, mindset, education, and what makes a good trader vs a good trade.
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The call ratio trap: bullish view, short-vol trade
Here's a trap that catches people all the time.
The volatility skew as a conditional statement
The volatility skew is a conditional statement. Every point on it is the market's expected vol if the underlying actually gets to that strike.
The two-timeframes problem options solve
The best argument for using options in a portfolio is that they let you hold two views at the same time
This earnings season was different
Why real money buys 0DTE
Big real-money asset managers buy 0DTE options
The multidimensional trap in options
Options are multidimensional. That's the part that trips most people up.
On the shopping list: October vol
My base case for the next few weeks is boring. Markets drift up into mid-August. The low-vol regime just carries on.
Why I ignore GEX-by-strike numbers
The metric I actually use for reading dealer gamma at each strike is net position size in contracts
Positioning size without liquidity context is noise
A flow is only as powerful as the liquidity that has to absorb it. People forget that when they read positioning data.
The best portfolio construction idea I ever borrowed
The best idea I ever borrowed on portfolio construction: you don't have to choose between being fully invested and being protected.
How I teach options
Quick note on how I teach options.
Google is the tell for the rest of Mag7
The semis just handed us a warning about tech earnings. Google is the next name to watch to see if it confirms.
The vol supply that never went away
A story from my market-making days that shapes how I still read index vol today.
Why Friday-Monday calendars are a trap
Something I've stopped doing recently: Friday-Monday calendar spreads.
AAPL is at the highs but the surface says capped
AAPL is a clean example of a stock that looks strong on the chart but is quietly capped underneath.
Your total Vega number is probably lying to you
If you run a multi-expiry options book and you're looking at one total Vega number, that number is probably lying to you.
Trading options for a living looks different from what people picture
My actual day is much closer to a series of check-ins spaced an hour or two apart.
Alpha book up 5.22% on a strong theta week
Weekly update on the Alpha Gen book. Strong week. Alpha Gen up 5.22%, driven almost entirely by the Theta sleeve.
Why I'm playing NVDA back up here
NVDA has sold off hard. The thing I keep looking at is how calm the options market is staying about it.
The cheap asymmetric vol is sitting in bonds
VIX is back around 20. That's where the crowd is putting its vol bets.