Insights
Daily market commentary from Imran Lakha. Skew, vol surfaces, hedging, and what's actually moving the tape.
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Stop cheering for your hedges to work
Your hedge has one job. Take enough sting off the move that you don't capitulate on the core position.
Why I'm short SMH despite NVDA ripping
NVDA ripped 4% yesterday. SMH didn't move. When the leader carries the tape and the breadth doesn't follow, you pay attention.
How to defend a long without selling it
For long-term holders sitting on real gains, this is one of the cleanest ways to ride out an event without giving up your seat.
The setup I'm watching for a VIX play
Most traders watch VIX rip on a selloff and assume single-stock vols are doing the same thing. They're not. And the gap is one of the most exploitable patterns in index options.
Blowout earnings are getting sold. That's a tell.
The NASDAQ rally has at least four tailwinds behind it. Most commentary only names one. Yes, the AI story is real. But look at what else is driving the flow.
The collar game: how I ran this stock without chickening out
Every time a winner rips, you feel the itch to sell. You fight it because "run your winners." It keeps ripping. Then eventually it pulls back 15% and you watch half your gains evaporate, selling in a panic right at the low.
The hidden reason NASDAQ upside keeps getting supported
There's a dynamic impacting vol markets this month and it doesn't get much airtime outside hedge fund desks.
My portfolio: another week where the process paid
Good week in the book. Alpha Generation up around 6% on the week. Long-only made back close to 3% on a broad recovery. YTD now sitting at +6.4% including hedges.
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed
Every option structure exists because a simpler one failed. Take the fly-agonal. It's one of the more complex structures out there, and most people learn HOW to put it on without ever learning WHY it exists.
The trade most miss when vol explodes
When implied vol hits 60%, most retail traders freeze. "Too expensive," they say. They shut down. They watch from the sidelines while the premium gets richer by the day.
Asymmetric bets: the idea behind every good options trade
Every options strategy I've run for twenty years has one thing in common — I'm looking for bets where the downside is capped and the upside is a multiple of it. Here's how to find them and how to structure them.
Portfolio Highlights: I made 100% on oil overnight. Then I did something most traders won't
Last week I put on an oil put ratio right before Trump's Iran deadline. Short delta, short vol. 2-by-3 ratio.
Hedges should lose money
Your hedges should lose money. That's the whole point. If your put spreads bleed in a rally, good.
The fly trap
Call butterflies look incredible on paper. Spend $300, make $1,200. That's 4 to 1. Here's what the payoff diagram doesn't show you.
The "right" way to read skew
Someone in the community asked me if there's a rule of thumb for normalizing skew data.
VIX beta is telling you something
By looking at VIX beta, this playbook is broken right now, and here is why...
Two time horizons, one portfolio
Your swing trade thesis has a shelf life of about 10 minutes right now.
The "fear gauge" is wrong
CNBC has called VIX the "fear gauge" for 30 years. That's just wrong.
Three conditions before I sell premium
Implied vol sitting above realized vol. Variance premium right there for the taking. Simple, right?
Two books or one?
Do you run two mental accounts? "My portfolio" over here. "My options trades" over there. Completely separate books.